Résultats ENAREF/B, GRH, ENAREF/A 2011

Hi Joe Good to hear from you.I use $7.67 for a recoverable barerl base price before I apply a 63% COS this is very similar to TPOs $7.80 for a Shaikan recoverable barerl.A couple of points firstly I think your long term oil price asumption over the 25 years of the contract is far too low. You appear to be saying that the average / barerl price is going to be $90 over the 25 years allotted to the PSC. I use $100 which is IMO still conservative.Secondly are you falling into the heavy oil' trap. Yes the Jurrassic is heavy but not that heavy, see 1Wavings post, and the Triassic is light all the way up to condensates. API 35 55 with a high GORThen there is the gas: 1.5 TCF declared very saleable with a gas fired 1000kw new power station being built and Turkey saying that they want as much Kurdistan gas as they can get their hands upon.GKP has 54.4% working interest Texas Keystone defaulted on payments for operational spending and their percenage has been subsumed under GKPs.How detailed is your DCF? I'm acquainted with TPOs which is extreamly detailed it has been looked over by oil experts and they get $7.80 after the ASIP tax and the 10% toplslicing has been applied. The $7.80 is twice your own figure.I am told that the transportation costs are $1/barerl to Cehyan not 7 and this will be paid by the KRG under the PSC terms.I am currently using a 63% COS which gives a value of $4.82 for a Shaikan barerl. This is well below what Genel paid for reserves at Tawke $5.8 and we were told that the Chinese were willing to pay a third more. We must be close to reserves being declared.As the Chinese ARE presumably after Shaikan I use a 6% discount rate rather than 10% they reduced this to zero when they paid $6 barerl for Addex. The oil price was then $50 I currently have a35.17 as my value for Shaikan . John G said in New York that Shaikan was then worth doyble the Share price which at that time stood at a32.60If I increase my valuation to your 18b I personally get a38.86 for Shaikan alone. I disagree that there is anything like the political risk you are applying. The agreement with Turkey to transport the oil to market has blown this old chesnut out of the water. IMHO the political risk is very low although a geo-political risk does exist I apply a 63% COS as opposed to your 70%If bump3r on Advfn is correct and a a37 bid was rejected in February, how does your valuation stand up if this is true?I agree that a37-8 is the most likely starting bid and that is what I'm expecting but this is a long way away from your a32.94/shareAny comments kindly receivedPhil